Sunday, March 16, 2008

The Emotional Economics of Ethanol

The stocks of major ethanol producers like VeraSun Energy reported major profit declines this past week (81% down). Stocks of other ethanol companies are trading below book value. The price of corn has gone from $1.90 to $5.64 per bushel while enthanol has gone from $4.50/gallon to $ 2.60/ gal so ethanol is now just another commodity. Ethanol companies and investors are claiming that high corn prices, overcapacity, and uncertainies over future government mandates for the use of ethanol are making the market "emotional".

Whatever, it appears that the "Ethanol Blitz" to replace the MBTE additive which was claimed to have carcinogenic groundwater pollutants may have it own kind of "cancer" on the investors and growers who have "bet the farm" as they seek to create a new source of fuel and a new world of energy prices. [See Herb Greenberg's column in the Saturday's issue of WSJ (March 15th) for more insight and erudition on what is really going on]

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